“Seeing the future is the first step in getting there.”

STRATEGIC ISSUES

Simply looking back at the accelerating rate of change in the media industry in the last twenty years suggests that the future is going to be unpredictable, and we have to expect a continually accelerating pace of evolution.

However it is also true that while the evolution will continue, the anticipated demise of analogue media, has regularly been grossly exaggerated. No medium has ever been superseded by a new entrant.

But publishers must focus on investing in the future, across different media channels rather than acquiring businesses based on the past.

FACTS

Western newspaper companies are facing decline in real terms in print, of perhaps up to a third in the next seven years, but their financial performance will continue to provide a secure future, providing costs are kept in line.

However growth in digital is likely to compensate for losses in print, with print revenues accounting for a third of all revenues by 2017.

In most markets their share of digital display and classified is recovering, and will continue to gain traction. In the USA for example newspapers share of digital display and classified has grown from 27% to 40% since, 2004.

SOLUTIONS

Within the bounds of economic fortunes – which no-one but the greedy bankers could have foreseen this time around, forecasting of revenues and the structures behind them can be done with reasonable confidence.

So it is essential that media companies continue to anticipate the future, in terms of scale, technological and social intervention.

It is also vital that such projections are produced in the context of planning cycles – one year budgeting, three to five year business planning, ten to fifteen years for major capital investment.

Such tools enable publishers to not only make decisions regarding top-line revenue issues, but also identify, the causes of these forecasts, and make operational decisions to resolve them.

These are not normally skills that publishing companies hold in house. But they can be adopted quickly and cost-effectively.

MATERIAL

“Opportunities out of Adversity

Repositioning for Future Growth - Report”

A financial-model scenario for newspapers in 2017 for the Newspaper Association of America. Based on  projections of current newspaper financial data and marketplace trends, the report concluded that the newspaper franchise could be very vibrant, given meaningful strategic and operational changes.

Report by Jim Chisholm for the Newspaper Association of America, 2008

“UK newspapers: The road forward

A discussion document on the future of the UK regional press.”

This report was prepared as a discussion document in response to the UK government enquiry into the future of local media in the UK.

Report by Jim Chisholm.

Projects

Chisholm has wide experience in this area. He created and directed the “Shaping the Future of the Newspaper project for the World Association of Newspapers, and wrote and/or produced over 25 reports for this project.

He has worked on a range of short, medium and long-term strategic planning projects in a wide range of markets in Europe, North America, and Asia.

He has delivered over 100 presentations on the future of the publishing industry, in over 30 countries. Currently the best way to obtain copies of these presentations is to contact Jim Chisholm directly, stating what is your topic of interest, at jim@jimchisholm.net. He will be happy to forward to you any material that is deemed to be in the public arena.

Jim Chisholm, Newspaper Consultant and Analyst

email: jim@jimchisholm.net. Telephone: +33 6 40 42 72 32. Mobile, +44 77 75 81 77 97. Skype: jpchisholm